Sorry to disappoint my fan (if any).

Texas is allegedly offering Barry Zito $100 million over 6 years. I’m sure that includes all kinds of incentives and clauses and perks and what not.

Considering what Zito would bring to the Mets, I'd have no problem giving him an ABSURD amount of money in salary. What I am NOT comfortable with is giving him a massive amount of money for a long period of time.

If I were Omar Minaya, my offer to Zito would be:

Five years, $98 million dollars:

2007: $20 million

2008: $20 million

2009: $20 million

2010: $15 million player option; full no trade clause

2011: $18 million team option, $5 million buyout clause.

Basically, $80 million guaranteed four seasons as opposed to $100 over six, with the opportunity of Zito to become a free agent again at age 31 instead of age 34.

If he has a serious injury in 2009 (or career-ending before that) he can exercise his player option and then the Mets would buy him out after year four; giving him $80 million over four years.

If he's healthy for three seasons and thinks he can get more than $33 million over the next two seasons -- or if he just hates playing in New York -- he can decline his option and become a free agent (the JD Drew saga this off season would make that likely possibility), resulting in more money earned than by taking the Texas deal.

If he stays with the Mets for the duration, it's a better offer than Texas, because he'd only need to find a $2 million contract for 2012 to make more money than what Texas offered.

I'd offer only a full no-trade for 2010, so the Mets can't trade him to a team that would pick up his 2011 option. And there isn't really a need for anything more than that.

In the first three years, if he's good, the Mets have no reason to trade him.

If he's bad, no one will want him at $20 million through 2009 (the $15 mil plus $5 million buyout)

If the Mets somehow did trade him just to make the team better -- say for Brandon Webb or Jake Peavy (although, I doubt such a scenario would arise), his player option for 2010 gives him the ability to walk from that team anyway after 2009.

Plus, if the Mets are rebuilding in 2009 or 2010 (again, I doubt such a scenario would arise) he could ask to be dealt at the 2009 deadline, decline his option with the new team and become a free agent after the season.

But if he asked for a full no trade clause, I'd negotiate it in there, because if he's good, the Mets are not going to want to trade him. If he's bad, no one will take him at that salary anyway.

And it makes sense for Zito personally. if you look at his total career path. If he leaves us after three seasons ($60 mil) and then signs a 5-year $75 million deal from someone who doesn’t have apprehensions about injuries, he’d make $135 million over eight years.

He gets to play for a clear contender that should compete for the duration of the contract baring some doomsday scenario. And he has the escape clause if he’s unhappy in New York, simply wants more money, or just wants to go back to California.

 
His injury protection is drastically reduced (by $20 million guaranteed in 2011 and 2012 compared to the Texas offer), but in a realistic sense any baseball player of his caliber is set for life with either contract.

Also, he would become a 10-year service man with our contract even if he gets injured before the end of 2009 (by exercising his player option for year four), so full pension no matter what.

Popular opinion would say “Well, Pedro and El Duque were hurt”

And that’s true. However, if anyone thought Oliver Perez would be that good in the playoffs as starter, they were smoking something. Perez and Maine (2.63 playoff ERA) stepped up and filled in the gap nicely. Glavine was also ace-like (1.59 ERA). 

Willie managed to the starters situation brilliantly, I thought. He knew the number one priority was turn it over to the bullpen with a lead, and we win. And the only time the bullpen failed to protect the lead was when Trachsel left early, and then the pen imploded in game two vs STL.

We survived the injuries.

I think the real reason we lost was David Wright.

Wright has long been the golden boy who could do no wrong. And this by no means is me “laying blame” or turning on the guy.

But as the Golden Boy, I expected Wright to step up in the playoffs, relish the spotlight and deliver clutch hits. He owned the All-Star game, and I expected him to be the consistent star that he has been in his career. I expected after his big series, the FOX guys getting lovesick eyes and talking about how great he is so much that everyone else is almost nauseated. Just like Derek Jeter.

Our main weakness was lack of production vs lefties. As such, we needed Wright to step up and carry us against lefties… like he did the first half of the season.

It was devastating to me to see Wright struggle in the post-season. It hurt that discover our hero is mortal.

It was like watching Clark Kent go into a phone booth, make a phone call and tell his step-parents “I just watched Jimmy Olsen fall to his death,” and go back inside the Daily Planet in his suit and glasses to write the obituary.

Why didn’t you save us, Superman?

This is the real world, there are no Supermen. And it was hard to watch the good guys lose.

 I can’t help but wonder if the Cardinals know something about Wright that everyone else doesn’t.

Is probably what my reader has been wondering. After all, it's been two and a half months since I've posted here. And it's not like I haven't been posting on the Mets Refugees Message Board

The truth is I:
moved to New Orleans,
got extremely busy with a new job
only occasionally had time to post online about the Mets
and that was replying to a topic someone else brought up on the aforementioned the Mets Refugees Message Board.

Since I've been gone, a lot's happened and I probably don't have anything to say that you haven't already read. Like other Met fans, I'm distraught we lost.

Unlike most people, I wonder why the Cardinals only won 83 regular season games. After all, this isn't some "bad" team who somehow put together a good run in the post-season after winning a bad division.

This was a team that won 100 and made the World Series two years ago; won 105 last year; had the reigning Cy Young and MVP on the team; Has six former all-stars in the lineup (Rolen, Pujols, Edmonds, Eckstein, Wilson, Belliard); Has arguably the best defensive player in the league at four positions (1B, 3B, C, CF); and was the preseason favorite to win the NL by the majority of baseball writers (more than the Mets, Dodgers or Padres combined).

I'm sure I'll talk more about the offseason all offseason; and also talk about the loss to the Cards in the NLCS. But for now, I'll just give the Cards their props.

I don't normally do this (because I'd have to daily with those guys), but since no one is listening to reason, I'll blast the duo here.

Apparently, Chris Russo (Mad Dog) was "blasting" Dunaer Sanchez for being out at 1:45 in the morning (before an off day) night looking for a restaurant with his brother and a friend when a (possibly drunk) driver swerved across four lanes of traffic and hit the taxi the trio was in.

The accident, on I-95 in Miami, dislocated his shoulder and put "Dirty" as we affectionally call him out for the season.

The ridiculousness of 'Dog's statement apparently isn't obvious at a glance.

Dog's looking at it from a "trouble happens more often if you're out late than if you're in your hotel room." And to be fair, that is true.

However, this is not a case of a group of partying college kids getting liquored up and getting into a fight outside of a Denny's.

Sanchez was "attacked" while sitting in a cab catching up with his brother and a friend. It's entirely reasonable to expect that you can go get some food in a cab without having someone careen into you.

Why is a person looking for food at 1:45 am?

For people with 8-5 jobs, 2 a.m. dinner is something that happens when you're out drinking and being irresponsible.

The life of a MLB ballplayer (or NBA or NHL) is different. The players are at the ballpark for an hour after the game doing interviews, showering and going home/back to the hotel. They work from 4 pm to 11 pm or later.

One of the reasons teams stay at five star hotels -- not just because they are millionaires -- is because they need things normal businessmen do not need. Things like 24 hour bell hop, room service, and weight rooms. If you don't have an off day before a road trip, you're checking in at 2-6 in the morning.

A 2 a.m. dinner is like a 9 p.m. dinner for normal people.

I find implying the actions of Duaner Sanchez "irresponsible" absurd. If anything, it's irresponsible journalism on Russo's part.

I doubt very highly that Chris Russo would think that he was acting irresponsibly if he left his job at 6 p.m., went back home, got in a cab to get dinner with his friends (hopefully not paying for his large radio partner) and his cab was in an accident that was no fault of the driver, let alone himself.

I think Omar Minaya's strategy at the deadline changed completely with the news of Dunaer "Dirty" Sanchez getting hurt.

Instead of "let's get creative and see if we can find a significant upgrade at starter without losing Milledge, or a great starter worth losing Milledge for" it became a simple case of "we can't get worse"

When Dirty got hurt, our holes became:
#3 starter, setup man, offense vs lefties.

Omar knew the market for starters and decided to shift that second hole from setup man to #8 hitter.

He basically turned a potentially glaring weakness into a small weakness by adding Roberto Hernandez.

Not to mention we got a great 24-year old lefty project in the process. He got Oliver Perez, who has  a ton of potential (Pittsburgh has a history of destroying young pitcher's mechanics and almost all of them bounce back elsewhere. See Arroyo, Bronson; Wells, Kip just to name a couple).

We downgraded in RF by about 20 OPS points (But IMPROVED our RF defense) and did so at our least important slot in the lineup.

And as luck would have it, our top prospect, and the guy with most potential to step in and be a superstar (Milledge) happens to play that position!

Sure, it would be nice to have a great #2 starter. But none were really available at a realistic price.

My main disappointment is that we didn't add someone who excels vs lefties, at 2B or RF. Like Ray Durham -- who could be available via a waiver trade.

But given 15 hours to replace Dirty, Omar did a great job.

Speaking of waiver deals, the Dodgers designated for assignment Jose Cruz, Jr, who absolutely kills lefties. If Omar doesn't jump at him, I would be surprised, because productin vs lefties was a weakness BEFORE we dealt Nady (who excelled vs lefties) and Cruz can fill that need if Milledge isn't ready to drop a .875 OPS vs lefties at the MLB level

I've explained in great detail that should the Mets trade & sign Zito, the cost of getting him for the 2006 playoffs is the difference between Milledge and our 2007 #1 draft pick.

Obviously, with our without Zito in 2007 and beyond, losing Milledge hurts. Because he's good, we envision him being in our OF for years to come, etc.

Aside from Zito/#3 starter, another glaring weakness in my mind is our production vs lefties. We need a RF or 2B who hits lefties well, because we're not going to pull Floyd and Delgado vs a lefty in the playoffs.

We'll also need a corner OF for next season, with Milledge in Oakland and Floyd a free agent (personally, I resign Cliff on the cheap to save that #1 draft pick).

What about Eric Byrnes from Arizona?

Hits well vs lefties, plays great defense, apparently hits well at Shea.

What would he cost us? He's on a one-year contract and the D'Backs have DeVanon and Green as OFs with Gonzalez in LF and Quinten recalled.

Brian Bannister for Byrnes?

Either keep Nady to DH vs a lefty on the road in the World Series (Detroit has a pair of lefties), or trade him and Soler to Pittsburgh for Roberto Hernandez.

Then in the offseason, you resign both Byrnes and Floyd, keep the #1 pick, go all out for Zito. If you sign Zito, you have most your team returning (save Trachsel, Zambrano, Matsui; which means you have some money to revamp the bench without losing a draft pick and piece together some good role players)

Your young core on offense is still Wright-Reyes-Beltran with Byrnes in between the Floyd-Delgado-LoDuca age group.

Your rotation is: Pedro-Zito-Glavine-Pelfrey-Maine

If you lose Zito to someone, you can use ONE of the draft picks to sign a starter (Meche?) and get two more to replenish with.

And you've got a good shot at winning the World Series in 2006 and beyond.

We just keep beating every one (although, doing so through the use of grand slams is a new twist).

On a side note, props to  BPhunk and Senor_Mike for the impressive growth of the Mets Refugees message board. Over 500 members in a shade over two months. If you're a Mets fan and haven't been there, check it out. It's a great community, albeit uncensored and extremely blunt.

The only name that really jumps out on that list to me is Redman. Redman is a lefty, having the worst year of his career and is trapped in Kansas City. Strikes me as someone with high bounce-back ability. And he has a World Series ring with the 2003 Marlins.

Kansas City is a good trade partner as well as their financial and rebuilding situations means they’d be willing to dump salary and take a host of minor league B-prospects trying to stockpile and get lucky. They also might be willing to add Mark Grudzielanek to the deal to save even more cash.

What JP would do: Victor Diaz and Eddie Camacho for Redman.

#2 – Second Base

Ideally, the Mets could acquire one guy to address multiple weaknesses. For example, getting a second baseman with speed, high OBP, good defense, who can hit lefties well and hit second.

The one guy who stands out at me as meeting this requirement is Ray Durham of San Francisco. Free agent to be, making $7.0 million.
1.074 OPS vs left this year, .900 OPS vs left 2002-05.
.341 overall OBP this season. Lost a step or two but knows how to run the bases, can swipe when needed (4 SB, 0 CS).
Very good at hitting behind runners, good OBP/OPS with runners on and runners in scoring position.

What would San Francisco ask in return? Well, he is 34, but Brian Sabean loves old guys. Although, SF has Kevin Frandsen in AAA, hitting .297 with .358 OBP and .795 OPS at age 24. So, perhaps an arm like Alay Soler, which would offset the cost of Durham, and another kid.

Other options include:
Adam Kennedy (low OBP, can’t hit lefties)
Todd Walker (average OBP, can’t hit lefties, abysmal defense)
What JP would do: Alay Soler and Henry Owens for Durham

#5 – Lefty specialist

Darren Oliver is very good vs lefties (.152 / .208 / .258)
Unfortunately, Pedro Feliciano is not (.292 / .319 / .400)

Choate struggled vs lefties in years past.
I personally like Reyes, but not sure if MIN would give him up. Ditto de la Rosa.

The Royals offered Affeldt, with MacDougal for Kris Benson in the off season. If they would make that trade last year, they might jump at the chance to get someone younger and cheaper.

What JP would do: Brian Bannister for Jeremy Affeldt

Final Result

SS Reyes
2B Durham
CF Beltran
1B Delgado
3B Wright
LF Floyd
C LoDuca
RF Nady

Bench:
Castro (C)
Franco 1B/PH
Chavez OF/PR
Pornstache IF
Marrero OF

Rotation
R Martinez
L Glavine
R Trachsel
L Redman
R Pelfrey / Hernandez / Maine

Closer: Wagner
8th Inning: Sanchez
7th /Setup : Heilman
Lefty Specialists: Oliver, Affeldt
Righty Specialist/Fireman: Bradford
Long Men: Oliver, Feliciano

Demote: Chris Woodward

Finally tally:
OUT: Victor Diaz, Alay Soler, Brian Bannister, Henry Owens, Eddie Camacho
IN: Ray Durham, Mark Redman, Jerremy Affeldt

Is that a lot to give up? Yes.
However, look back at past deadline acquisitions:
In 1999, we gave up Jason Isringhausen, Greg McMichael, Terrance Long, Rigo Beltran, Brian McRae, and a prospect for Billy Taylor, Kenny Rogers, Darryl Hamilton and Chuck McElroy.
In 2000, we gave up Melvin Mora, Mike Kinkade, Leslie Brea, Pat Gorman, Paul Wilson and Jason Tyner for Mike Bordick, Bubba Trammell and Rick White.

These moves address our needs while not sacrificing a ton of our future: Most notably, our rotation issues. We dealt three arms, but one is a project (Owens) and the others appear to be #4 starters, #3 guys at best.

Our 2007 rotation still looks okay (Pedro, Glavine, Redman, Pelfrey, Maine) before we hit free agency and make a run at Zito. Therefore, there’s room for Zito and a trade of either Redman or Maine, or keep Maine in AAA until someone gets hurt.

Redman makes the same amount as Trachsel, and with Matsui, Hernandez, Zambrano, Floyd (20.5 million) coming off the books, we can add Milledge and make a run at Zito with out expanding payroll very much.

I fully expected David Wright to finish eighth in the Home Run Derby. I didn't expect him to beat David Ortiz, make the finals and finish one homer back of the winner.

He hits for average, he walks, he can steal, he turns in web gems, he gets walk-off hits, he's an MVP candidate, he's humble, he's a great kid, and he can out-homer David Ortiz head-to-head when he wants to.

I'm pretty sure he was tired in the semis and finals because he cured cancer and raised Roberto Clemente from the dead after the first round.

"One reason I picked Ryan Howard is because one guy can't have it all... First place, best record in the NL, an MVP candidate... David Wright can't win the Home Run Derby, too, can he?" -- Harold Reynolds or Joe Morgan (whichever. Some ESPN former second baseman said it).

But later on Baseball Tonight, I heard something that floored me.

Steve Phillips: (gushing about Wright; whom he drafted in 2001 as GM of the Mets)
Harold Reynolds: "It's batting practice. Are you this excited about batting practice?"
Phillips - "I'm excited because he's hitting .327 and is an MVP candidate. This is what we thought of him when we drafted him."
John Kruk: "Prospects will get you fired."

Blood just shot from every orifice of my body.

Did John Kruk really just say "Prospects will get you fired" to STEVE FREAKING PHILLIPS?

Prospects DID get Steve Phillips fired:
Alex Ochoa, Carl Everett, AJ Burnett, Jason Isringhausen, Melvin Mora, Paul Wilson, Alex Escobar, Billy Traber, Glendon Rusch and Jason Bay...

Those prospects got Steve Phillips fired. When he traded them for: Rick Becker, John Hudek, Al Leiter, Billy Taylor, Mike Bordick, Rick White, Roberto Alomar and Steve Reed!

Phillips held on and handled about four prospects correctly:

Edgardo Alfonzo, Jose Reyes, Aaron Heilman and David Wright.

And his "success" with Heilman and Wright was not trading them in the YEAR he could have before getting fired.

I'm so glad David Wright is a New York Met. Quite honestly, the first time I saw him in the yellow "National" jersey, I actually recoiled in horror. For a split second, I simply couldn't handle seeing David Wright in a uniform without "New York" or "Mets" on the front. Steve Phillips was gushing like a proud papa because that's how ALL Mets fans feel right now. We've been rooting for this kid since he was 18.

If you think "relax dude, it's not like you haven't had good players before." Turn on Letterman Wednesday night and listen to him. We've had great players before, but I could never trust Steve Phillips to let them stay more than four years. I bought a David Wright jersey after 2004 because I knew that he'd either stay a Met for life, or I'd be done as a Mets fan forever.

I'm interested in acquiring a second baseman and maybe an arm or two before the trade deadline.

Guys I'd like to acquire include:
Adam Kennedy of Los Angeles (Anaheim version)
and
Mark DeRosa of Texas.

If you're a blogger for one of those teams, annoint yourself acting armchair GM and let's work out a blog trade.

We can keep updating our blogs with the conversation.
Post a comment, or email me if this sounds like a fun idea.

When the Mets have made the playoffs, they've never used more than 11 starters:
In 2000, the Mets used 10. In 1999, the Mets used 9. 1988 NL East winning team used seven, Nine when they won it in 1986. The You Gotta Beleive '73 team used 11, while the 1969 Miracle Mets used nine.

Sine Omar Minaya will probably make a move at the deadline, I'd wager we'll see a 12th different starter this year.

I'm quite sure, without doing too much research, that the 14 starters the Yankees used last season are the most different starting pitchers ever used by a team that made the playoffs.

So far the Mets have used (in order of appearance)
1. Tom Glavine
2. Brian Bannister
3. Pedro Martinez
4. Steve Trachsel
5. Victor Zambrano
6. John Maine (Bannister to DL)
7. Jose Lima (Maine to DL)
8. Jeremi Gonzalez (Zambrano to DL)
9. Alay Soler (Lima Designated for Assignment)
10. Orlando Hernandez (Gonzalez Designated)
11. Mike Pelfrey (Soler Designated; Pedro to DL)

Pelfrey hasn't been recalled yet, as the Mets brought up converted catcher Henry Owens to replace Pedro on the roster. After Friday's game, Lima will be sent down (most likely) and Pelfrey will be formally added to the roster to start Saturday.

The Mets, with a rare off day on the first day after the all-star break, could actually throw the same starter in back-to-back games:

Thu - PIT - Trachsel
Fri - FLA - Lima
Sat1- FLA - Pelfrey
Sat2- FLA - Maine
Sun - FLA - Glavine
Mon - --- - -
Tue - --- - -
Wed - --- - -
Thu - --- - -
Fri - CHI - Glavine
Sat - CHI - Pedro
Sun - CHI - Trachsel
Mon - --- - -
Tue - CIN - Pelfrey or Maine
Wed - CIN - Glavine
Thu - CIN - Pedro

Of course, that would give something like 16 days between starts to Orlando Hernandez, and everything is subject to change based on the performance of Pelfrey and Maine.

(1) The Mets' hot streak
(2) The Mets' cold streak
(3) David Wright's hot streak
(4) Jose Reyes' hot streak
(5) Pedro Feliciano lashing out at Willie.
(6) My trip to Shea
(7) Mets problems for the stretch run
(8) are the Mets pressing now before the All-Star game with a huge lead?
(9) The Six Mets on the All-Star team
(10) Just where have I been?
(11) The Mets rotation and potential solutions
(12) RF: Xavier Nady or Lastings Milledge?
(13) Cliff Floyd's injury bug
(14) Why I hate interleague play
(15) The Mets reluctance to bring up young players from the minors in general

Just to name over a baker's dozen. Let's see how many I can get to.

First off, I'm not worried about the Mets recent slide (2), because the Mets have dominated the NL all season long. Only one team owns a winning record vs the Mets, St. Louis. Simply put, in our own league, no one can stop us. Are we going to lose a few games here or there? Sure, slumps happen (2, 8) and competitors can get frustrated when that does (5). But I think we'll be fine. I was at Shea for David Wright's grand-slam vs Baltimore, chanting MVP with the rest of the fans, and I was also listening to DWright on the Jim Rome show while traveling (3, 6, 10) and I heard Wright say he needed to work on his consistency. Then I looked up and discovered his worst full month ever, he hit .286. Wright's slumps are few and far between and he can carry us at times and be consistent enough that when someone else is hot, he's coming through too. Reyes has been phenominal of late (4) and in the playoffs, we'll have him to help us manufacture runs in tight ball games.

we have plenty of options to help us for the stretch, as I explained to my Yankee-loving friend while traveling for a wedding (10), the Mets have used 10 starting pitchers thus far and still have Pelfrey to try out. The key to that, and why I think a lot of Mets fans think Omar Minaya is "afraid to use young players" is we can't add some guys to the 40 man without losing someone, and we can't add other guys to to the 25 man without losing other veterans, so we don't have a ton of options. Plus you don't want to start a guy's arbitration/free agent clock for two weeks before other players return from injury (15)

Injuries forced the Mets to go to Milledge and he did okay, and the bench is sharp with all the injuries to Nady, Beltran and Floyd (13). Milledge needs his ABs in AAA, but he'll be back for September and he needs to be on the playoff roster because we will need a DH in the World Series (12).

The biggest reason I'm not worried about our slide is because the Mets are 43-25 vs the NL. The Mets ALWAYS have the hardest interleague schedule, and even when we are the best team in the NL, I don't expect us to finish at .500 vs the AL. Because of the DH. AL teams pay an extra starter. It's that simple. I've heard the argument "each team has to spend within its budget, so that's no excuse" but the fact is, the Red Sox and White Sox budget for a starter and use league-minimum guys for their last three offensive spots because they don't have to use their bench. Texas, entering my hiatus, had pinch hit SIX TIMES all season. The Mets pinch hit more than that in ONE GAME. Yes, the DH plus AL bench of the Red Sox probably makes the same as the Mets bench. But the Mets have to spread their payroll out over five bench guys instead of getting one expensive DH and using league-minimum glove men.

I'd like to see the Mets go out and get a 2B who hits lefties (Mark DeRosa would be awesome) for the stretch because they often struggle vs lefties (7) and rely on their four OF and Franco to fill out the DH spot.

My ideal World Series Road lineup
vs righties: Reyes-LoDuca-Beltran-Delgado-Wright-Floyd-Nady(DH)-Valentin-Milledge
vs lefties: Reyes-Nady-Beltran-Delgado-Wright-Franco(DH)-DeRosa-LoDuca-Milledge

Of course, our rotation is currently a mess (11). But with Maine back and an 11.5 game lead we can give Pedro some rest and make sure we have Pedro-Glavine as our healthy 1-2. Ideally, Pelfrey steps up and becomes a Verlander-like #3 option so we don't have to make many big trades at the deadline, just getting DeRosa and a bullpen arm.